With hard-line politicians in the US and Iran dismissing any possibility of a meaningful nuclear agreement between Iran and the West, the negotiators press on in the hope of saving face for the Obama and Rouhani detente.
The reality is that whatever solution they come up with is already history. Until recently Iran's only deterrent against a US attack was its semblance of control of the straits of Hormuz, export route for much of the oil from the Middle East. This particular deterrent has been nullified by the copious amounts of oil in the global market and futility of closing its main trade route.
The second major deterrent is, of course its potential nuclear arsenal. No one really knows how advanced Iran's nuclear weapons programme really is. The layer upon layer of deceit and misinformation has surely ensured that only a small fraction of the immense nuclear and weapons programme will ever come to light.
So despite the waving of agreements the managers of Iran's security know the only thing that separates them from events in Syria or Iraq is a nuclear arsenal. Historically, the dilapidated nuclear power of North Korea can still threaten the US and its allies and remain unscathed yet 2 of the largest armies in the Middle East, Syria and Iraq imploded leading to the disintegrated of those countries. Ironically, Syria was regarded as a safe haven for many Iranian leaders, who kept residences and safe houses there.
Building an advanced nuclear programme with intense sanctions is costly and dangerous. However, the loosening of sanctions and the possibility of a closer relationship with European and US companies can facilitate the import of just the right components to add on to the substandard ones provided by Russia, and North Korea. Iran may curtail its legitimate nuclear programme but it needs advanced rocket capabilities and nuclear warheads for its survival. No Iranian regime would disassemble a programme that it claims, does not exist
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