With the militant war raging in Northern Iraq it seems like the crazy plan of containing the Syrian civil war has finally failed. The total inaction in Syria for the past 2 years has led to the training and arming of a large army of battle hardened over zealous militants that now threaten to spillover into the rest of the region.
With Syria largely forgotten and with no great prize apart from a desolate wasteland the militants are moving to plan B. Even the name ISIS could have been apt for any James Bond nemesis. Like any great movie the sequel has to have far more action, bigger explosions and involve the whole world.
ISIS is heading directly for the Iraqi capital and the oil fields of Southern Iraq. ISIS's timing is bizarrely perfect. With an America that doesn't seem to have an appetite for war and an Iran that is bending over backwards to seem nice, the vacuum in the region leads nicely to the doorstep of Saudi Arabia. Of course, you do not bite the hand that feeds you, so Saudi is clearly the final frontier for ISIS.
The only questions that remain is will Iran still pretend to be nice or will ISIS wind them up enough for them to unleash their full insurgency in Iraq. You can just imagine the fuming IRGC generals sitting on their hands and gritting their teeth. It wasn't a long time ago that Hezbollah and the IRGC were the most feared insurgency in the Middle East. Those days have long gone.
Oh yes, there is one more question. The Kurds are remarkably quiet in this little war. Could there be a tacit agreement between the Kurds and ISIS to carve up the area. That would be a formidable force. The Kurds are historically some of the most accomplished and battle hardened fighters in the region. They also sit on a nice patch of oil rich land. This is one hell of a sequel waiting to happen. And by the way , if you were thinking of shorting oil and a nice quiet summer forget it.
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