Iran's nuclear non-armament

With hard-line politicians in the US  and Iran dismissing any possibility of a meaningful  nuclear agreement between Iran and the West, the negotiators press on in the hope  of saving face for the Obama and Rouhani detente.

The reality is  that whatever solution they come up  with is already history. Until recently Iran's only deterrent against a US attack was its semblance of control of the straits of  Hormuz, export route for much of the oil  from the Middle East. This particular deterrent has been nullified by  the copious amounts of oil in the global market and futility of  closing its main trade route.

The second major deterrent is,  of course  its  potential nuclear arsenal. No one really knows how advanced Iran's nuclear weapons programme really is. The layer upon layer of deceit and misinformation has  surely ensured that only a small fraction of the immense nuclear and weapons programme will  ever come to  light.

So despite the waving of  agreements the managers of Iran's  security know the only thing that separates them from events in Syria or Iraq is a nuclear arsenal.  Historically, the dilapidated nuclear power of North Korea can still  threaten the US and its allies and remain unscathed yet  2 of the largest armies in the Middle East, Syria and Iraq  imploded leading to the  disintegrated  of  those countries. Ironically, Syria was regarded as a safe haven for  many Iranian leaders, who  kept  residences  and safe houses  there.

Building an advanced nuclear programme with  intense sanctions is costly  and dangerous. However, the loosening of sanctions and the possibility of a closer relationship with European and US  companies can facilitate the import of  just the right components  to  add on to  the substandard ones  provided by Russia, and North Korea. Iran may curtail  its legitimate nuclear  programme but it needs advanced rocket capabilities and nuclear warheads for  its survival. No Iranian regime would disassemble  a programme that it claims, does not exist

Saudi Arabia: the new OPEC

OPEC's rearguard seems to have momentarily  stopped the exponential slide in oil prices. It seems there is a level  where all interests converge to stabilizing the price.

• Saudi Arabia has clearly warned of the negative implication of continued US  production.
• Iran and Russia have been painfully reminded not to meddle too much in their neighbors affairs,  or suffer the consequences.  
• OPEC has been thoroughly  tamed. 
• The US consumers can happily drive to their Thanksgiving dinner without being bankrupted.

However, with the OPEC meeting eminent it is clear that consensus will not be achieved to multilaterally cut the OPEC production ceiling. The new OPEC  is  an effective vehicle  for Saudi Arabia  to  unilaterally manage Middle Eastern oil.

The unilateral actions by Saudi Arabia has damaged the relationships within OPEC beyond repair.  It is virtually impossible to differentiate between the sectarian battles on the ground and the groupings within OPEC.

The growing mistrust between Iran and Saudi Arabia and the collection of failed states and minnows that make up the rest of OPEC have only self interest as their priority and currently Saudi Arabia either funds  or  subsidies many of the regimes.

The United States and  Saudi Arabia will now want to  see a period of stability for oil  prices. It seems the ever chaotic region can now tolerate continued sectarian violence, as long  as the Saudi oil fields  are out of bounds.

OPEC conundrum and the Middle Eastern endgame

It is impossible to believe that a few years ago peak oil was the main paradigm in the oil complex. Shorting oil was unheard of and Middle Eastern leaders were throwing their money around like confetti. The oil complex has gone full circle.

OPEC is powerless and the grand traders and politicians dictate the oil  markets and the politics behind it. This is the endgame for many Middle Eastern regimes. A painful war of attrition on the battlefield and the oil field. The nuclear talks with Iran are now irrelevant as the country is hemorrhaging capital and a normalization of ties with the West will even reduce the price of oil further. With the price of oil  so low,  the larger  powers can afford to  have a multitude of proxy wars across the region,  without worrying about  the disruption of supplies. The only issues  is how  deep  are the pockets of the oil producing nations.

It is difficult to fathom how long the Iranian regime can sustain itself with 70 dollars a barrel oil. The rear guard of OPEC desperately push for higher prices, unaware that they will have to pump more to sustain their market share. The dual threat of alternative energy sources and shale oil has thrown the traditional oil complex into turmoil and destroyed the old order.

The revolutions started in the streets but ended in the boardrooms of the great trading houses and oil producers. As economists in the Middle East and the US count the costs of this war of attrition consumers reap the reward of cheaper energy prices. Yet this is a short term phenomenon. The low prices of oil can only lead to trouble in the Middle East.  A few points to consider.

• How long can Iran sustain its embargo ridden economy with massively declining revenues ?
• When will the increasingly sectarian Sunni-Shia war in the Middle East spillover ?
• How will the new  emerging oil  states like the Kurds change the oil-state dynamics ?
• How long will  Russia remain on the sidelines  of this oil war ?