Friday 14 November 2014

Saudi Arabia: the new OPEC

OPEC's rearguard seems to have momentarily  stopped the exponential slide in oil prices. It seems there is a level  where all interests converge to stabilizing the price.
  • Saudi Arabia has clearly warned of the negative implication of continued US  production.
  • Iran and Russia have been painfully reminded not to meddle too much in their neighbors affairs,  or suffer the consequences.  
  • OPEC has been thoroughly  tamed. 
  • The US consumers can happily drive to their Thanksgiving dinner without being bankrupted.
However, with the OPEC meeting eminent it is clear that consensus will not be achieved to multilaterally cut the OPEC production ceiling. The new OPEC  is  an effective vehicle  for Saudi Arabia  to  unilaterally manage Middle Eastern oil.

The unilateral actions by Saudi Arabia has damaged the relationships within OPEC beyond repair.  It is virtually impossible to differentiate between the sectarian battles on the ground and the groupings within OPEC.

The growing mistrust between Iran and Saudi Arabia and the collection of failed states and minnows that make up the rest of OPEC have only self interest as their priority and currently Saudi Arabia either funds  or  subsidies many of the regimes.

The United States and  Saudi Arabia will now want to  see a period of stability for oil  prices. It seems the ever chaotic region can now tolerate continued sectarian violence, as long  as the Saudi oil fields  are out of bounds.





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